At the September 16 close, total crypto market cap was about $2.59 trillion, against $18.35 trillion for our 59-company AI infrastructure basket. That puts Crypto/AI at 0.141x, up roughly 12.7% since August 19.
Our basket covers the businesses behind AI: chips, memory, networking, photonics, power, cooling, data centers and AI neoclouds.
The improvement isn’t just stablecoins getting bigger. Excluding stablecoins, Crypto/AI has gained about 14.3% over the same period.
What the moving averages tell us
Crypto/AI now sits above its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. It’s barely above the 20-day average.
The 50-day average is around 0.1305x, and the 200-day is around 0.1382x. The current reading is 0.1412x.
That’s encouraging, but we want to see it hold. One close above an average doesn’t settle anything. Staying above the longer averages and building higher lows would make the recovery more convincing.
These averages track the Crypto/AI ratio, not Bitcoin or our token. They use calendar days because crypto trades through the weekend.
Relative strength doesn’t always mean prices are rising
Since August 19, crypto market cap has grown about 11.7%, while our AI basket has slipped about 0.9%. That’s a recovery led mostly by crypto gaining value.
The last week tells a different story. Since September 9, crypto market cap fell 2.8%, but the AI basket fell 5.7%. Crypto/AI still rose about 3% because crypto fell less.
Both count as relative strength. They don’t feel the same in your wallet.
We’re watching the other comparisons, too
We’ve added IGV and SMH as secondary benchmarks. IGV gives us a software comparison, while SMH gives us semiconductors. Neither replaces our AI infrastructure basket.
Crypto’s recent recovery looks stronger against SMH. Against IGV, the picture is less convincing: the relative-strength line has slipped below its 20-session average.
That keeps us honest. Crypto isn’t leading everything.
The thesis is still being tested
Crypto/AI remains roughly 55% below its 10/10 level. We’re not calling the comeback complete.
We want to see the recent gains hold, higher lows form, and strength continue with and without stablecoins. That would give us more reason to believe this is more than a bounce.
The scoreboard tracks the thesis. The Crypto/AI token is the meme behind it. We hope a stronger thesis brings more interest to the project, but a rising ratio doesn’t guarantee anything for the token.
For now, crypto has taken some ground back. Let’s see if it can keep it.